Optional reading

Last reviewed: 20 October 2026

Thinking clearly about risk

Five habits that make rare events, small samples, and first numbers feel larger than they are.

Intermediate · 5 steps · about 10 minutes · no account

1. 1. The base rateAbout 2 minutes
2. 2. What comes to mindAbout 2 minutes
3. 3. Due for a changeAbout 2 minutes
4. 4. The first numberAbout 2 minutes
5. 5. Sure too soonAbout 2 minutes