Due for a change

Independent events do not keep a balance sheet. Three rainy match days do not make the next day due to be dry. A lottery is not 50/50 merely because there are two words, win and lose. The gambler's fallacy treats chance as if it owed a correction. The equal-odds slogan treats two labels as if they were two equal chances. Both skip the actual probability. Ask whether this trial is independent of the last one, and what the chance really is, not how the sentence was split.

Cognitive bias

Gambler’s fallacy

The gambler’s fallacy treats independent events as if they owed you a correction. After a run of one result, the other result feels “due.” If the events are independent, the run does not change the next chance.

Open the full card

Mini check

After three reds in a row on a fair roulette wheel, a player says black is now 'due', as if the wheel kept a balance sheet. Which mistake is this?

Independent spins are treated as if they owed a correction.Three spins are being read as if they were a full study of the wheel.A test of the wheel's balance is cited that already shows a bias toward black.The player is asking for sympathy rather than giving a reason.

A friend says: "The lottery is 50/50: either I win or I don't." What is wrong?

Having two possible outcomes does not make them equally likely.Nothing, because any yes-or-no question is 50/50.Lotteries have three outcomes, so it is 33%.The chance is 50/50 only on the first ticket.

Try it today

If you catch yourself saying something is due, write whether the trials are actually linked.

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