“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy
Last reviewed:
1934–1996
American astronomer and the best-known science communicator of his era.
He gave ordinary people a practical toolkit for scepticism, the 'baloney detection kit', for testing claims and spotting bad arguments.
Logical fallacies
Practise this skillAlso: Evidence and sources
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.
He popularised this line rather than inventing it: similar ideas go back to Laplace and the sociologist Marcello Truzzi.
Find a surprising claim in today's news. Is the evidence offered as strong as the claim is surprising?
Carl Sagan was an American astronomer and science communicator, born in 1934, died in 1996. He worked in planetary science and became widely known through the 1980 television series Cosmos, which he wrote with Ann Druyan and Steven Soter, and through the book of the same year. The Demon-Haunted World (1995), parts of it written with Druyan, is his longest lesson in scepticism: the dragon in the garage, and the baloney detection kit in chapter 12. Pale Blue Dot (1994) is the humility he drew from a photograph of Earth. He popularised 'extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence'. He did not invent the standard. Laplace and Marcello Truzzi are in the note on that card. A sentence a Newsweek reporter wrote about him is filed as misattributed, because affection for the man is not a source.
Evidence in proportion
Stranger claims need a stronger case. He also said the extraordinary should still be pursued, which the short form often drops.
Baloney detection
A kit in chapter 12 of The Demon-Haunted World: confirmation, debate, distrust of authority, more than one hypothesis, and a test that could fail.
Wonder and humility
We are star-stuff, and the Earth is a pale blue dot. Wonder is not a substitute for the kit, and the kit is not a substitute for the scale of the picture.
“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy
“Look again at that dot. That's here. That's home. That's us.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy
“To me, it underscores our responsibility to deal more kindly with one another, and to preserve and cherish the pale blue dot, the only home we've ever known.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy
“If you wish to make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy
“The cosmos is also within us. We're made of star-stuff. We are a way for the cosmos to know itself.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy
“Science is much more than a body of knowledge. It is a way of thinking.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy
“I try not to think with my gut. If I'm serious about understanding the world, thinking with anything besides my brain, as tempting as that might be, is likely to get me into trouble. Really, it's okay to reserve judgment until the evidence is in.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy
“At the heart of science is an essential balance between two seemingly contradictory attitudes — an openness to new ideas, no matter how bizarre or counterintuitive, and the most ruthlessly skeptical scrutiny of all ideas, old and new.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy
“Somewhere, something incredible is waiting to be known.”
Carl Sagan · Thinkers beyond philosophy