Judging after the result

Hindsight makes a result look as if it had been the obvious call. A reckless bet that happens to pay off gets praised. A careful bet that loses gets called naive. The quality of a decision is what was known at the time, not how the story ended. Luck belongs in the outcome column. It does not rewrite the reasons. Before you regret a choice or crown one, write the facts that were actually available when it was made.

Cognitive bias

Hindsight bias

Hindsight bias makes a past event feel as if it was obviously going to happen, once you know that it did. The feeling of “I knew it” arrives after the result and rewrites how uncertain the situation was.

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Mini check

A manager praises a junior colleague's reckless bet because it happened to pay off. What error is the manager making?

Judging the decision by how it turned out rather than by what was known at the time.Judging the decision by the value it was expected to have, which is the fair way to review it.Anchoring on the first figure written in the business plan, and never leaving that number.Treating money already spent as a reason to keep going, whatever the new information says.

Try it today

For one recent result, list only what you knew before it happened, and judge the choice on that list.

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