Spot it
Anchoring
Also called first-number effect
The first number you see sets what 'cheap' or 'a lot' feels like.
Your brain judges numbers by comparison, not in a vacuum. Whatever figure arrives first becomes the reference point, and you adjust from it, usually not far enough. That's why a crossed-out price, an opening salary offer or a big headline figure shapes what follows, even when you know it's arbitrary. In one classic study, a rigged wheel landing on 10 or 65 shifted people's guesses about African countries in the UN (median 25% vs 45%). The anchor doesn't need to be relevant to work.
What the research says
Well supported
- Tversky & Kahneman (1974). Science 185(4157), 1124–1131Well supported
Mixed evidence
- Ariely, Loewenstein & Prelec (2003). Quarterly Journal of Economics 118(1), 73–106Mixed evidence. A large replication found smaller anchoring effects on willingness to pay (Maniadis, Tufano & List, 2014, American Economic Review 104(1), 277–290).
Where you'll see it
- Sales: 'was £120, now £59'
- Salary and pay-rise talks
- House asking prices
- Charity 'suggested donation' boxes
- Headline cost figures, the biggest number first
Your defence
Decide your own number before you look at theirs.